Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.418819 1.470544 1.523861 1.583086 1.647228 1.714815 1.791707
2025-12-14 1.342308 1.410571 1.483001 1.566037 1.659193 1.761200 1.882366
2025-12-21 1.283368 1.362154 1.447543 1.547789 1.663372 1.793904 1.954639
2025-12-28 1.252675 1.341533 1.439706 1.557532 1.696971 1.859277 2.066578
2026-01-04 1.231722 1.329744 1.439951 1.574948 1.738705 1.935026 2.195215
2026-01-11 1.201339 1.305049 1.423251 1.570415 1.752550 1.976339 2.282523
2026-01-18 1.177688 1.286732 1.412597 1.571723 1.772497 2.025225 2.382331
2026-01-25 1.143349 1.254215 1.383323 1.548329 1.759432 2.029914 2.421497
2026-02-01 1.119921 1.233700 1.367449 1.540386 1.764990 2.058459 2.495145
2026-02-08 1.097349 1.213308 1.350752 1.530317 1.766718 2.081202 2.561405
2026-02-15 1.076218 1.193898 1.334427 1.519761 1.766831 2.101086 2.624272
2026-02-22 1.061774 1.182119 1.327004 1.520073 1.781064 2.140937 2.720623
2026-03-01 1.034227 1.153899 1.298668 1.492782 1.757402 2.126553 2.731952
2026-03-08 1.016976 1.137963 1.285296 1.484549 1.759387 2.149169 2.805193
2026-03-15 0.999020 1.120645 1.269595 1.472527 1.755311 2.162236 2.863297
2026-03-22 0.992453 1.117367 1.271635 1.484148 1.784904 2.227488 3.018718
2026-03-29 0.988827 1.117607 1.278076 1.501769 1.823730 2.309478 3.215740
2026-04-05 0.976894 1.106914 1.269878 1.498838 1.832122 2.343578 3.326955
2026-04-12 0.967542 1.099266 1.265398 1.500784 1.847649 2.390029 3.469120
2026-04-19 0.949531 1.080075 1.245169 1.479959 1.827841 2.376437 3.485243
2026-04-26 0.937729 1.068677 1.235017 1.473015 1.828811 2.397778 3.578655
2026-05-03 0.925617 1.056628 1.223696 1.464013 1.826136 2.412540 3.659654
2026-05-10 0.913781 1.044710 1.212271 1.454489 1.822182 2.424686 3.736453